Austin and Atlanta share the best odds of landing Amazon’s HQ2, while Dallas’ chances lag behind, says Irish betting site PaddyPower.
The company has put 3-to-1 odds on the $5 billion campus, which will employ some 50,000 workers, landing in Atlanta or Austin.
In October, it gave Atlanta 2-to-1 odds and Austin a 3-to-1 chance. Dallas was given 16-to-1 odds at the time, and Paddy Power has since given the city an even longer shot, with a 20-to-1 chance.
As of Dec. 31, PaddyPower says other top contenders for the headquarters include Boston, with a 7-to-1 chance, and Washington D.C. and New York City, each a 14-to-1 chance. Check out PaddyPower’s odds list here.
But how reliable is PaddyPower, and what exactly is it? Its forecasting has been questioned widely since it prematurely and incorrectly paid out $1.1 million to people who bet that Hillary Clinton would beat Donald Trump in the presidential election. It declared Trump’s campaign dead three weeks before the election.
However, it is a 29-year-old Ireland-based betting powerhouse that stretches far and wide online and in the real world — mostly in Europe. The Irish Times reports PaddyPower’s first-quarter revenue last year equated to about $566 million, and it turns the heads of respected media outlets.
A Jan. 2 story from Fortune, for instance, notes that, “When cities submitted their bids in late October, Fortune turned to a popular betting site to see which of the more than 200 candidates had the early edge. Fast forward to the new year, and the initial favorite — Atlanta — is still at the top of the list, but its chances have declined from 2/1 to 3/1 and it now shares the perch with southern rival, Austin, Texas.”
More than 200 cities in the United States and Canada are competing for HQ2.
Dallas-Fort Worth submitted a unified bid for the campus by Amazon’s deadline of Oct. 19. At least 35 sites in a dozen North Texas cities were pitched for the headquarters, all of which were part of the single submission.
As part of its bid, DFW highlighted its business-friendly climate, cost of living and an undisclosed amount of incentives in hopes of luring the e-commerce giant.
“It’s always great to pursue opportunities like this with the Fort Worth Chamber of Commerce, and the professionals that conduct economic development for our regional cities,” said Mike Rosa, senior vice president of economic development at the Dallas Regional Chamber. “Working together, we’ve had a lot of success bringing new jobs, companies and investment here. I’m confident we’ve shared with Amazon all the things that have made this region a great place for corporate headquarters location.”